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Development trend of PVC resin industry

2019-07-10 11:40:47
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The consumption of polyvinyl chloride resin in China is mainly concentrated in South China and East China. The total consumption of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Jiangsu accounts for about 70.0% of the total consumption of the country. Among them, Guangdong and Fujian have a large market demand. However, the production capacity is insufficient, and the proportion of imported PVC resin is relatively high. The PVC resin processing industry in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang is relatively developed, and the consumption of the three provinces accounts for about 34% of the total domestic consumption. 0%; Production and sales in North China are basically balanced. In the future, with the strengthening of development in the central and western regions and the construction of large-scale infrastructure, the consumption of PVC resin in the central and western regions will gradually increase.


2 Demand forecast


[5] The polyvinyl chloride resin industry is a basic and energy-intensive industry, which is greatly affected by demand and energy prices. It is also a basic chemical raw material, so it is also closely related to economic development. Judging from the situation in 2012, as domestic PVC resin production capacity is still declining, while downstream demand growth is relatively slow, coupled with blocked exports and increased imports, the overall operating rate of domestic PVC resin companies is not high, and the number of idle capacity is relatively high. The market price has always remained low and medium, and the price fluctuation range has been reduced. In addition, the listing of PVC resin futures has increased the uncertainty of the price fluctuation of the PVC resin market to a certain extent. Looking forward to the next few years, my country's PVC resin industry will still be in a relatively difficult period of integration, and there will be many factors that will affect the future development of my country's PVC resin.


3 Export issues


① Cost barriers


Polyvinyl chloride


PVC is a basic chemical raw material with relatively small product differentiation. Under the domestic perfectly competitive market, the cost is the most important factor affecting the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to industry characteristics, raw materials and energy account for a relatively high proportion of product costs. The cost of the petroleum ethylene method is mainly affected by the price of petroleum; the production cost of the calcium carbide method is mainly affected by the cost of calcium carbide. Generally speaking, the cost of calcium carbide accounts for about 70% of the cost of PVC, and the cost of electricity accounts for about 60% of the cost of calcium carbide. Western China has abundant power resources and relatively low electricity prices. Compared with eastern calcium carbide manufacturing enterprises, western calcium carbide manufacturing enterprises have certain advantages in terms of cost. And enterprises with resource endowment and supporting calcium carbide production will build a more solid cost barrier.


② Industrial policy barriers


In order to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the chlor-alkali industry and standardize the development of the industry, in accordance with the sustainable development principles of “optimizing layout, orderly development, adjusting structure, saving energy, protecting the environment, safe production, and technological progress”, the National Development and Reform Commission formulated and issued the “Chlor-Alkali ( Caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride) industry access conditions", which will be implemented since December 1, 2007: In terms of industrial layout, it is required that new chlor-alkali production enterprises should be close to resource and energy sources. In principle, the eastern region will no longer except relocate enterprises. Newly built calcium carbide process PVC projects and supporting caustic soda projects; technological aspects require the construction of new, renovated and expanded calcium carbide process PVC projects must be accompanied by the construction of calcium carbide slag comprehensive utilization devices such as calcium carbide slag cement; access conditions also depend on energy consumption Indicators and environmental protection set standards for new projects. The adjustment of industrial policies has greatly raised the threshold of capital, technology, talents, and resources for the chlor-alkali industry.


③ Scale barriers


The scale of investment required to produce PVC is relatively large, the fixed cost is relatively high, and the scale benefit is relatively obvious. Large-scale enterprises are in a more advantageous position in negotiations with suppliers, which is conducive to reducing raw material costs. Companies with large production and sales have a correspondingly higher market share, have greater market influence, and are relatively easier to obtain customers. Once PVC manufacturers reach a larger scale of production and sales, their marginal costs will gradually decrease and their ability to resist risks will be enhanced.


④ Capital barriers


At the same time, with the country’s increasingly strict safety and environmental protection supervision, the construction of chlor-alkali production equipment must be equipped with corresponding large-scale environmental protection equipment (for example, the calcium carbide line must be equipped with calcium carbide slag cement equipment, etc.), and the capital investment is relatively large. Can't afford it.


Therefore, manufacturers investing in this industry must have strong financial strength and there are certain financial barriers.


The demand for PVC in India's domestic market has increased year by year, from more than 1.7 million tons in 2009 to more than 2.2 million tons in 2012; but there were only five PVC manufacturers in India with a domestic production capacity of 1.25 million tons per year. India Finolex Industries is a large PVC pipe manufacturer in India. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, there is a large gap, so the average annual PVC imports in India reach 950,000 tons. At the same time, India's vinyl raw material gap has also increased year by year, with 722,000 tons in 2011, 976,000 tons in 2012, and 1.12 million tons in 2013. According to statistics, from April to September 2012, India's PVC imports were mainly from South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, the United States, Mexico and other countries and regions. Among them, PVC imports from South Korea and Taiwan both exceeded 200,000 tons.


Rajesh Deshpande said that India's PVC downstream products are mainly PVC pipes and accessories, accounting for 43% of the country's total PVC downstream products. In the first six months of the 2012-2013 fiscal year, downstream demand increased by 20%, and imports increased by 50%. According to the development speed, by March 2013, the domestic market demand in India will reach 2.2 million tons, and the development speed of PVC pipes will also reach double digits.


As the PVC downstream consumer market expands year by year, India's PVC industry has a greater development opportunity. According to Rajesh Deshpande's forecast, the growth of the downstream consumer market for PVC products in India stems from many aspects. The government's investment in infrastructure construction has increased year by year. Statistics show that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the Indian government will invest US$890 billion in infrastructure construction; the rural infrastructure development fund will increase to US$3.5 billion; the investment budget for rural drinking water and environmental sanitation will reach US$2.5 billion; US$53 million will be invested in the construction of irrigation systems; US$90 billion will be invested in the construction of large-scale infrastructure in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, of which the Japanese government sponsored US$4.5 billion.


Despite the large gap between supply and demand, the Indian PVC industry faces certain challenges due to the greater competitive advantages of imported products. Rajesh Deshpande said frankly that there are still certain problems in the development of the PVC industry in India: For example, users have not yet seen the advantages of plastic pipes over traditional pipes; environmentalists and non-governmental organizations have explained the harms of plastic pipes from the perspective of environmental hazards; relevant production companies have not Pay attention to the quality control of its own products. Therefore, for the Indian PVC industry to achieve sustainable development, it must continue to develop new products and new technologies, while paying attention to the recycling and reuse of PVC products.


Although China has a large global PVC production capacity, due to the decline in ethylene prices, the import volume of ethylene-based PVC set a new record in 2009. On the other hand, China's PVC market has always been in a state of low operating rate. In the first half of 2009, China imported about 1.2 million tons of polyvinyl chloride, which is 1 million tons more than the total import volume in 2008. With the soaring price of ethylene, the competitive advantage of China's calcium carbide process PVC production has emerged. In the second half of 2009, China's PVC imports declined steadily. According to China Customs data, the imports in November were only 60646 tons.


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