1. Definition and characteristics of PVC products
Polyvinyl chloride, commonly known as PVC, also known as PVC resin or PVC powder, is one of the important organic synthetic materials. Chemical structural formula: (CH2-CHCl)n, molecular weight: 36500～937503. Its products have good physical and chemical properties and are widely used in industries, construction, agriculture, daily life, packaging, electricity, public utilities and other fields.
PVC resin, physical appearance is white powder, non-toxic and odorless. Relative density 1.35-1.46, refractive index 1.544 (20℃), insoluble in water, gasoline, alcohol and vinyl chloride, soluble in acetone, dichloroethane, xylene and other solvents, with high chemical stability and good plasticity. Except for a few organic solvents, it can withstand any concentration of hydrochloric acid, less than 90% sulfuric acid, 50-60% nitric acid and less than 20% caustic soda at room temperature. In addition, it is also quite stable to salts; PVC can burn and burn on flames. It releases HCl, but it self-extinguishes when it leaves the flame. It is a "self-extinguishing" and "flammable" substance; PVC begins to decompose above 100°C and slowly releases HCl. As the temperature rises, the rate of decomposition and release of HCl increases. Causes PVC to change color.
PVC is synthesized by free radical polymerization of vinyl chloride. Suspension polymerization method, emulsion polymerization method and bulk polymerization method, mainly suspension polymerization method, account for about 80% of the total output of PVC. In the industry, the PVC production process is generally classified according to the method of obtaining vinyl chloride monomer, which can be divided into calcium carbide method, ethylene method and imported (EDC, VCM) monomer method (the ethylene method and imported monomer method are commonly referred to as ethylene law). According to different production methods, pure PVC powder is divided into: general-purpose PVC resin, high-polymerization PVC resin, and cross-linked PVC resin. General-purpose PVC resin is formed by the polymerization of vinyl chloride monomer under the action of an initiator; PVC resin with high degree of polymerization refers to a resin polymerized by adding a chain extender to the polymerization system of vinyl chloride monomer; cross-linked PVC resin is A resin polymerized by adding a crosslinking agent containing diene and polyene into the vinyl chloride monomer polymerization system.
PVC resin can be processed into various plastic products. According to its use, it can be divided into two categories: soft and hard products. They are mainly used to produce transparent sheets, pipe fittings, gold cards, blood transfusion equipment, soft and hard tubes, plates, doors and windows, Profiles, films, electrical insulation materials, cable sheaths, blood transfusion materials, etc.
2. Development status of PVC upstream and downstream industries
1. Upstream raw materials
Ethylene is the basic chemical raw material for synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, and synthetic plastics. 75% of petrochemical products are produced from ethylene. According to expert estimates, the commissioning of a million-ton ethylene project can drive more than 100 billion downstream industrial investment. At the same time, the long industrial chain of ethylene has penetrated into most industries such as textiles, clothing, automobiles, electronics, building materials, plastics and chemicals.
In recent years, China's rapid economic growth has created a great demand for ethylene. In an interview with reporters, Bai Yi, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, pointed out that in the past 15 years, China's consumption of ethylene products has been in a period of rapid growth, with an average annual growth rate of 16.1% in equivalent consumption. Bai Yi believes that my country's ethylene demand will continue to grow steadily during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. In 2010, my country's ethylene production capacity will reach 17 million to 18 million tons, with an output of 14.5 million tons per year, and the ethylene self-sufficiency rate will reach 58%. In 2010, my country's ethylene demand reached 25 to 26 million tons, and the production capacity reached 14 million tons per year, which could only meet 55% of domestic demand. In 2020, my country's ethylene demand will reach 37 million to 41 million tons, and the production capacity will reach 23 million tons per year, which can only meet about 60% of domestic demand. According to preliminary predictions, by 2020, my country will need to add about 9 sets of 800,000 to 1 million tons of ethylene plants. After 2010, the world's ethylene will be mainly made in China, and China will become the world's ethylene factory.
Calcium carbide, namely calcium carbide, an inorganic compound. Colorless crystals, industrial products are gray-black lumps with purple or gray cross-sections. It reacts violently when encountering water, generating acetylene and releasing heat. Calcium carbide is an important basic chemical raw material, mainly used to produce acetylene gas. Also used in organic synthesis, oxyacetylene welding, etc.
In China, calcium carbide is mainly used for the production of calcium carbide process polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The amount of calcium carbide consumed by PVC accounts for more than 75% of the apparent consumption of calcium carbide; secondly, it is used to produce acetylene products for metal cutting. The demand for calcium carbide accounts for about 10% of the total consumption of calcium carbide; the rest is used to produce products such as chloroprene rubber, polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), lime nitrogen and its derivatives. Therefore, the trend of the domestic calcium carbide market mainly depends on the development trend of the downstream PVC industry.
Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", driven by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, the rapid development of the organic synthesis industry using calcium carbide acetylene as raw materials has prompted my country's calcium carbide industry to enter a period of rapid development. Through the digestion, absorption and re-innovation of imported technologies, the technical level of the overall equipment in the calcium carbide industry has been greatly improved. Large-scale enclosed calcium carbide furnaces have basically achieved localization, and many technical and economic indicators have reached or exceeded the international advanced level. Attention.
2. Downstream applications
Simply classified from the characteristics of the product, PVC products can be divided into hard products and soft products. Hard products mainly include plastic pipes, profiles, sheets and plates; soft products mainly include foam materials such as films, wires and cables, artificial leather, and flooring. In developed countries, the ratio of hard and soft products is usually 60:40; in 2011, the ratio in China was 58:42. Due to the development of the real estate industry and the rapid development of China's urbanization process, hard products in the downstream PVC products still have the fastest growth rate, especially pipes and profiles.
In recent years, the overall performance of the downstream products industry has been poor, and both the start-up and profit conditions are facing challenges. Judging from the market in 2011, downstream product companies have extended the off-season, while the peak season demand has not increased as much as in previous years. It is obvious that the peak season is not prosperous. In addition to some downstream companies still encountering the "labor shortage" problem, funding constraints have become a major problem throughout the year, which has also become a major obstacle to the development of downstream product companies. In addition, the sharp appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate has also led to a significant decrease in orders for some end-products export-oriented product companies compared with previous years. Overall this year, the demand of downstream product companies has not increased significantly.
3. Current status of the global PVC market
According to CMAI's statistics: global PVC production capacity is growing very rapidly. In 2009, the total global PVC production capacity reached about 40 million t/a. The main production capacity distribution is shown in Table 1. Among them, North America is 8.016 million t/a, accounting for 20.2%; South America is 128.5 10,000 t/a, accounting for 3.2%; Western Europe 4.115 million t/a, accounting for 10.4%; Eastern Europe 2.215 million t/a, accounting for 5.6%; Middle East/Africa 817 thousand t/a, accounting for 2.0%; Asia-Pacific region 23.306 million t/a, accounting for 58.6%. Due to the slowdown of global economic development, with the sharp decline in demand in 2008, the demand for PVC in Taiwan, China did not increase in 2009, and the demand for PVC in 2010 has not yet recovered. PVC production in Taiwan in 2008 was 1.389 million tons, while consumption was only 607,000 tons. However, the demand from mainland China and other Asian countries is still growing.
PVC demand in Europe and America remains weak
After the turmoil in 2009, the global PVC market will rebound in 2010. However, the global credit rating agency Fitch stated that the PVC industry will not directly turn for the better in 2010. The agency pointed out: affected by the still fragile global economic situation and the difficulty of guaranteeing credit, by the end of 2012, the average income of European construction companies is expected to decline 5%-10%, while nearly 50% of PVC in Europe is used in the construction industry, the turmoil in the PVC market seems to have not subsided. At the same time, there are no obvious signs of recovery in the US PVC market.
Market participants believe that different regions have different market prospects. In Europe, the construction industry in the United Kingdom and the Iberian Peninsula has been hit harder, while Central and Eastern Europe will see a strong recovery. Affected by the financial crisis in 2009, the PVC industry is not profitable, which is not good for the continued development of the industry, so most people think that price increases are necessary, and returning to the level of early 2008 has become the goal of PVC manufacturers in 2010.
European PVC producers are facing severe pressure, most of them do not lose money, and a few have become negative growth. If sales and profit conditions in 2010 deteriorate further, manufacturers will have to lower their operating rates or even close factories.
US PVC production capacity is surplus, and US PVC production capacity is expected to drop by 2 million tons/a in the next few years. The weak demand for PVC in North America is due to the downward trend in the housing construction industry. In the long run, without a quick solution, the European and American PVC industry will not be able to recover to the level of 2007 before 2013.
Fourth, China's PVC supply and demand analysis
At present, the main production capacity of PVC is still distributed in North China, Northwest and East China. Statistics as of the end of 2011, as the production capacity of Shandong Province was included in the North China region in this year’s capacity statistics, the effective production capacity in North China reached 8.255 million tons, accounting for 37.7% of the national production capacity; followed by Northwest China. The region’s resource advantages have gradually become prominent. The production capacity in Northwest China has increased. In 2011, the effective production capacity reached 5.085 million tons, accounting for 23.2% of the national production capacity. East China accounted for the total production capacity of the country because Shandong’s production capacity was excluded from this year’s statistics. The proportion of production in East China has declined. Most of the factories in East China use ethylene-based PVC production. As of the end of 2011, the effective production capacity in East China was approximately 2.802 million tons, accounting for 12.7% of the country’s total production capacity. In addition, Central China and Southwest China accounted for 10.4% and 10.0% of production capacity respectively. South China and Northeast China are still the regions with the weakest PVC production capacity, accounting for only 2.9% and 3.1% of the national production capacity.
With the expansion of production capacity in 2011, China's monthly PVC production in 2011 rose to a level of about 1 million tons/month. This is a significant increase from 2010. Specifically, the production capacity of PVC is basically maintained at more than 1 million tons per month, and even reached 1.138 million tons in August 2011. This is mainly due to the fact that the market for caustic soda has been rising all the way and remains at a high level after the Japanese earthquake in March. The chlorine market has always been poor. In order to maintain a certain profit, the chlor-alkali plant keeps the load of the PVC plant at a high level. But overall, due to severe overcapacity, the annual average operating rate in 2011 can only fluctuate in the range of 60-70%.
In terms of demand, in addition to the traditional East and South China regions, which are more concentrated, the demand in North China has shown a substantial increase this year. On the one hand, the production capacity and demand in Shandong Province are included in the North China region. On the other hand, the original demand in North China has also increased. In addition, demand in Northwest and Central China. China's PVC production capacity is mainly distributed in the north. In terms of demand, in addition to the traditional downstream regions in East China and South China, the demand in North China has also shown a certain increase this year. In addition, the demand in the Southwest, Northwest, Central China and Northeast regions is still relatively scattered. It can also be seen from the above table that there is a certain difference between the place of production and demand for PVC in China.
North China is the most concentrated area of PVC production capacity in recent years, accounting for 37.7% of the national production capacity. North China has a large geographical span, and companies in the eastern region can use more convenient transportation methods to sell to the south, especially in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian and the Pearl River Delta. Compared with the huge production capacity, the actual demand in North China is relatively small. Except for the large-scale PVC pipe and plastic profile manufacturers such as Hebei Baoshuo and LG Jinpeng, most of the PVC products companies are small in scale, but this year North China The downstream demand has seen a significant increase. Due to the low cost of manpower and raw materials, some downstream factories have built supporting facilities in Hebei and Tianjin. It is expected that this growth trend will continue in recent years.
There are also many PVC production giants in East China, and most of them are ethylene-based PVC production companies, including Shanghai Chlor-Alkali, Ningbo Formosa Plastics and Hanwha Ningbo, whose production capacity accounts for approximately 12.7%. At the same time, as one of the most developed regions in China’s PVC processing industry, East China is also one of the most important demand markets in China. Half of the country’s plastic profile production capacity is located in East China, including PVC pipes, films, sheets and artificial leather. The production enterprises of other products are widely distributed in East China. In addition, the PVC product verification and processing industry in East China is quite developed, and these companies operate by importing raw materials and re-exporting products.
The annual PVC demand in South China accounts for 25.1% of the total national demand, but there are basically no large-scale PVC production enterprises in the local area except Tosoh Guangzhou, which was put into production in 2007. Most of the local PVC resin supply relies on the inflow of other domestic sources and imported sources. After more than 20 years of development, the PVC product verification and processing industry in South China is quite complete. There are thousands of PVC product verification and processing enterprises in Foshan, Dongguan and Shantou: such as the wire and cable production industry in Panyu, Guangdong, and Dongguan's Plastic doors and windows, PVC pipes from Foshan and Shunde. The Pearl River Delta in South China has always been one of the most sensitive markets in China. When the market fluctuates, the local market often responds first. However, with the increase of PVC production capacity in South China in the next few years, the dependence of South China on external PVC will be improved to a certain extent.
5. The driving factors of future PVC price
The second bottom of the global economy
At present, the global economic outlook is not very optimistic. Since coming out of the Great Depression, some emerging countries have made unremitting efforts under a complicated background and have more or less reached their pre-crisis economic levels. However, some major industrial countries are still in trouble, the European debt crisis has worsened, and the US Treasury bonds Rating downgrades, increased doubts among market participants about the US economic recovery, and the ever-changing stock market have weighed heavily on market confidence. Therefore, in most economic outlooks, we lowered our expectations for the global economic growth rate. The risk of a second global recession and the collapse of cooperation between the EU has increased significantly. According to magazine economists, in terms of purchasing power parity, the world GDP growth rate will reach 4% in 2012, a sharp drop from the earlier forecast of 4.5%. We have lowered our expectations for economic growth in the four major regions of the world, because emerging economies will inevitably face shrinking demand from industrial countries.
China Economic Outlook
China's GDP growth rate fell to 9.2% in 2011, and is expected to fall further to 8.2% in 2015, which will restrain inflation and prevent economic overheating. In the first half of 2011, driven by good agricultural production, the booming industrial production, and the strong retail industry, China’s GDP growth rate was as high as 9.6%, but under the prudent monetary policy,
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